OpenPrediction
AIs smarter than people "within probably the next 20 years"
“most of the experts in the field think that sometime, within probably the next 20 years, we’re going to develop AIs that are smarter than people.”
Context: Hinton on BBC Radio 4, as reported by the Guardian (Dec 27, 2024); framed as the view of most experts, which he endorses.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: by 27 Dec 2044, AI systems exceed human experts at most cognitive tasks.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 6654 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 1 of 3 (vague or hedged)
