OpenPrediction
In 2026 AI will be able to make "very small discoveries"
“In 2026, we expect AI to be capable of making very small discoveries.”
Context: OpenAI, "AI progress and recommendations" (Nov 6, 2025).
How we judge it
Our interpretation: during 2026, AI systems are credited (by the discoverers, in public write-ups) with at least one small but genuinely new scientific or mathematical result.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 83 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 1 of 3 (vague or hedged)
