CorrectPrediction
80%: Waymo opens public driverless rides in a new city in 2024
“Waymo will expand to a new city (80 percent)”
Context: Future Perfect's annual predictions; item by Dylan Matthews ("DM"): at least one new city where ordinary people can order a Waymo ride.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: during 2024, ordinary members of the public can order driverless Waymo rides in at least one city beyond San Francisco and Phoenix.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Verdict
- Correct ()
- Stated probability
- 80%
- Specificity
- 3 of 3 (precise and measurable)
- Score
- Brier 0.040 → 0.96 points
Evidence & grader’s note
Los Angeles opened to everyone in LA County on 12 Nov 2024. Brier = 0.04.
