OpenPrediction
"At least 3-5 years away from automating software engineering" (from Mar 2024)
“We are at least 3-5 years away from automating software engineering.”
Context: Post on X by the CEO of Abacus.AI, responding to the launch of the Devin coding agent.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: correct if software engineering is not automated (AI doing the end-to-end work of most professional software engineers) before 12 Mar 2027.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 154 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
