CorrectPrediction
Dual-use (driver/driverless) taxi service in 10 major US cities: not before 2025
“Such "taxi" services where the cars are also used with drivers at other times and with extended geography, in 10 major US cities NET 2025”
Context: From Brooks's dated predictions table first published 1 Jan 2018 ("My Dated Predictions"). NET = "no earlier than" (correct if it has not happened before that year); BY = "by that year".
How we judge it
Our interpretation: correct if before 1 Jan 2025 no driverless taxi service, using cars that are also driven by people at other times, operated in 10 major US cities.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Verdict
- Correct ()
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 3 of 3 (precise and measurable)
- Score
- 1.0 points × weight 3
Evidence & grader’s note
- Rodney Brooks, Predictions Scorecard 2026 (Jan 1, 2026)
- Waymo: dedicated driverless fleet of about 1,500 vehicles in four metros (May 2025)
No dual-use robotaxi service existed in 10 US cities by 2025; the leading service (Waymo) runs a dedicated driverless fleet in a handful of metros.
