Organization
AI researchers (2023 expert survey)
Aggregate forecasts of 2,778 AI researchers, Grace et al., "Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI" (AI Impacts, 2024)
- Score
- —
- 95% interval
- —
- Resolved
- 0
- Record (C–P–W)
- 0–0–0
- Open
- 4
- Too vague
- 0
Not ranked yet: leaderboards need at least 5 resolved claims (has 0). Score = specificity-weighted average of claim points; we grade claims, not people.
Calibration
No resolved claims with a stated probability yet, so there is nothing to calibrate. Calibration needs forecasts like “70% chance of X”.
Track record
Open (4)
At least 50%: AI builds a payment site from scratch, writes a hit-indistinguishable song and fine-tunes an LLM by itself by 2028
“The aggregate forecasts give at least a 50% chance of AI systems achieving several milestones by 2028, including autonomously constructing a payment processing site from scratch, c…”
10% chance all human occupations are fully automatable by 2037 (50% by 2116)
“However, the chance of all human occupations becoming fully automatable was forecast to reach 10% by 2037, and 50% as late as 2116”
50% chance machines outperform humans at every task by 2047
“If science continues undisrupted, the chance of unaided machines outperforming humans in every possible task was estimated at 10% by 2027, and 50% by 2047.”
10% chance machines outperform humans at every task by 2027
“If science continues undisrupted, the chance of unaided machines outperforming humans in every possible task was estimated at 10% by 2027, and 50% by 2047.”
Embed this scorecard
Right of reply: send a correction or response.