Organization
XPT domain experts
Domain-expert panel in the Forecasting Research Institute's 2022 Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (group median forecasts)
- Score
- 32%
- 95% interval
- 6%–79%
- Resolved
- 3
- Record (C–P–W)
- 1–0–2
- Open
- 0
- Too vague
- 0
- Mean Brier
- 0.519 (2)
Not ranked yet: leaderboards need at least 5 resolved claims (has 3). Score = specificity-weighted average of claim points; we grade claims, not people.
Calibration
| Stated probability | Forecasts | Mean stated | Happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–20% | 1 | 9% | 100% |
| 20–40% | 0 | — | — |
| 40–60% | 1 | 45% | 0% |
| 60–80% | 0 | — | — |
| 80–100% | 0 | — | — |
Track record
Resolved (3)
CorrectPrediction
45% that Robin Hanson wins his bet that GPT revenue stays under $1B
“35. GPT Revenue (Hanson Wins Bet that GPT Revenue < $1B) 45% 0% 0.90 6”
WrongPrediction
Median forecast: largest ML model would have 150 trillion parameters by 2024 (actual ~10 trillion)
“49. Largest Number of Parameters in a Machine Learning Model 150 trillion 10 trillion 2.74 7”
WrongPrediction
8.6%: AI gold-level performance at the IMO by 2025
“an outcome to which domain experts assigned only an 8.6% probability and superforecasters a mere 2.3% probability.”
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