- Score
- —
- 95% interval
- —
- Resolved
- 0
- Record (C–P–W)
- 0–0–0
- Open
- 2
- Too vague
- 0
Not ranked yet: leaderboards need at least 5 resolved claims (has 0). Score = specificity-weighted average of claim points; we grade claims, not people.
Calibration
No resolved claims with a stated probability yet, so there is nothing to calibrate. Calibration needs forecasts like “70% chance of X”.
Track record
Open (2)
OpenPrediction
50/50 that AI learns on the job like a human for any white-collar work by 2032
“AI learns on the job as easily, organically, seamlessly, and quickly as a human, for any white collar work.”
OpenPrediction
50/50 that AI does small-business taxes end-to-end by 2028
“AI can do taxes end-to-end for my small business as well as a competent general manager could in a week: including chasing down all the receipts on different websites, finding all…”
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