Person
Bryan Caplan
Professor of Economics, George Mason University; author of the "Bet On It" blog
- Score
- —
- 95% interval
- —
- Resolved
- 0
- Record (C–P–W)
- 0–0–0
- Open
- 1
- Too vague
- 0
Not ranked yet: leaderboards need at least 5 resolved claims (has 0). Score = specificity-weighted average of claim points; we grade claims, not people.
Calibration
No resolved claims with a stated probability yet, so there is nothing to calibrate. Calibration needs forecasts like “70% chance of X”.
Track record
Open (1)
OpenPrediction
Bet: AI will not get an A on 5 of his 6 latest midterms by January 2029
“If the AI gets an A on at least 5 of out 6 of those exams using same grading scale as his students, then Bryan owes Matthew $500.”
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