Data: Kalshi public market data, updated Nov 6, 2026, 9:15 am ET.
Live data could not be reached just now, so this page shows the last good update. It will refresh automatically when the data feed is back.
Who controls Congress? Market-implied odds
- House: Democrats
- 100.0%
- Settled: Democratic Party
- House: Republicans
- 0.0%
- Market-implied chance
- Senate: Democrats
- 100.0%
- Settled: Democratic Party
- Senate: Republicans
- 0.0%
- Market-implied chance
- Races tracked
- 30
- Senate, governor, House
- Races scored
- 30/32
- Settled markets
Race-by-race odds
Showing 30 of 30 races.
| Texas | Senate | Dem James Talarico | 73.5% | 187.3M | — | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | Governor | Rep Greg Abbott | 60.5% | 105.9M | — | Settled |
| Michigan | Senate | Dem Abdul El-Sayed | 78.5% | 81.1M | — | Settled |
| Florida | Governor | Rep Byron Donalds | 62.5% | 44.0M | — | Settled |
| Maine | Senate | Dem Troy Jackson | 72.5% | 32.2M | — | Settled |
| Mississippi | Senate | Dem Scott Colom | 97.8% | 32.1M | +88.1 pts | Open |
| Alaska | Senate | Dem Democratic party | 96.9% | 24.9M | +21.9 pts | Open |
| South Carolina | Senate | Rep Darline Graham | 66.5% | 22.0M | — | Settled |
| Nebraska | Senate | Rep Pete Ricketts | 67.5% | 19.1M | — | Settled |
| Iowa | Senate | Dem Josh Turek | 52.5% | 18.6M | — | Settled |
| Ohio | Senate | Dem Sherrod Brown | 71.5% | 18.4M | — | Settled |
| Ohio | Governor | Dem Amy Acton | 82.5% | 17.7M | — | Settled |
| Minnesota | Senate | Dem Peggy Flanagan | 90.8% | 16.7M | — | Settled |
| Kansas | Senate | Dem Adam Hamilton | 62.5% | 14.7M | — | Settled |
| New York | Governor | Dem Kathy Hochul | 95.9% | 12.4M | — | Settled |
| Florida | Senate | Rep Ashley Moody | 84.5% | 11.6M | — | Settled |
| California | Governor | Dem Xavier Becerra | 97.2% | 10.8M | — | Settled |
| Georgia | Governor | Dem Keisha Lance Bottoms | 70.5% | 9.1M | — | Settled |
| North Carolina | Senate | Dem Roy Cooper | 97.4% | 7.7M | — | Settled |
| Georgia | Senate | Dem Jon Ossoff | 96.7% | 7.3M | — | Settled |
| Massachusetts | Governor | Dem Maura Healey | 97.4% | 7.0M | — | Settled |
| Nevada | Governor | Dem Aaron Ford | 74.5% | 6.7M | — | Settled |
| Iowa | Governor | Dem Rob Sand | 86.5% | 5.6M | — | Settled |
| TX-15 | House | Dem Bobby Pulido | 90.3% | 4.6M | — | Settled |
| New Hampshire | Senate | Dem Chris Pappas | 94.4% | 4.3M | — | Settled |
| Arizona | Governor | Dem Katie Hobbs | 92.2% | 3.2M | — | Settled |
| MN-05 | House | Dem Ilhan Omar | 98.2% | 3.1M | — | Settled |
| Montana | Senate | Rep Kurt Alme | 90.7% | 3.1M | — | Settled |
| Wisconsin | Governor | Dem David Crowley | 84.5% | 2.9M | — | Settled |
| Pennsylvania | Governor | Dem Josh Shapiro | 98.4% | 2.4M | — | Settled |
Implied probability is the midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask, or the last trade when there is no quote. Volume is contracts traded; each contract pays $1 if it resolves Yes. 30-day move is the change in percentage points since the daily close about 30 days ago.
30-day price history
Results and scoring
- Settled
- 30/32
- Favorite won
- 28/30
- 93%
- Mean Brier score
- 0.068
- Lower is better; 0.250 = coin flip
- Still open
- 2
| Race | Favorite | Forecast | Winner | Result | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| House control | Democratic Party | 93.6% | Democratic Party | Favorite won | 0.004 |
| Senate control | Democratic Party | 75.5% | Democratic Party | Favorite won | 0.060 |
| Texas Senate | James Talarico | 73.5% | James Talarico | Favorite won | 0.070 |
| Michigan Senate | Abdul El-Sayed | 78.5% | Abdul El-Sayed | Favorite won | 0.046 |
| Texas Governor | Greg Abbott | 60.5% | Gina Hinojosa | Upset | 0.366 |
| Maine Senate | Troy Jackson | 72.5% | Troy Jackson | Favorite won | 0.076 |
| Florida Governor | Byron Donalds | 62.5% | Byron Donalds | Favorite won | 0.141 |
| Ohio Senate | Sherrod Brown | 71.5% | Sherrod Brown | Favorite won | 0.081 |
| Iowa Senate | Josh Turek | 52.5% | Josh Turek | Favorite won | 0.226 |
| Kansas Senate | Adam Hamilton | 62.5% | Adam Hamilton | Favorite won | 0.141 |
| South Carolina Senate | Darline Graham | 66.5% | Annie Andrews | Upset | 0.442 |
| Ohio Governor | Amy Acton | 82.5% | Amy Acton | Favorite won | 0.031 |
| New York Governor | Kathy Hochul | 95.9% | Kathy Hochul | Favorite won | 0.002 |
| Minnesota Senate | Peggy Flanagan | 90.8% | Peggy Flanagan | Favorite won | 0.009 |
| Nebraska Senate | Pete Ricketts | 67.5% | Pete Ricketts | Favorite won | 0.106 |
| Alaska Senate | Democratic party | 70.5% | — | Awaiting results | — |
| North Carolina Senate | Roy Cooper | 97.4% | Roy Cooper | Favorite won | 0.001 |
| California Governor | Xavier Becerra | 97.2% | Xavier Becerra | Favorite won | 0.001 |
| Nevada Governor | Aaron Ford | 74.5% | Aaron Ford | Favorite won | 0.065 |
| Florida Senate | Ashley Moody | 84.5% | Ashley Moody | Favorite won | 0.024 |
| Georgia Senate | Jon Ossoff | 96.7% | Jon Ossoff | Favorite won | 0.001 |
| Massachusetts Governor | Maura Healey | 97.4% | Maura Healey | Favorite won | 0.001 |
| TX-15 House | Bobby Pulido | 90.3% | Bobby Pulido | Favorite won | 0.009 |
| Georgia Governor | Keisha Lance Bottoms | 70.5% | Keisha Lance Bottoms | Favorite won | 0.087 |
| Iowa Governor | Rob Sand | 86.5% | Rob Sand | Favorite won | 0.018 |
| New Hampshire Senate | Chris Pappas | 94.4% | Chris Pappas | Favorite won | 0.003 |
| MN-05 House | Ilhan Omar | 98.2% | Ilhan Omar | Favorite won | 0.000 |
| Mississippi Senate | Cindy Hyde-Smith | 83.5% | — | Awaiting results | — |
| Wisconsin Governor | David Crowley | 84.5% | David Crowley | Favorite won | 0.024 |
| Arizona Governor | Katie Hobbs | 92.2% | Katie Hobbs | Favorite won | 0.006 |
| Montana Senate | Kurt Alme | 90.7% | Kurt Alme | Favorite won | 0.009 |
| Pennsylvania Governor | Josh Shapiro | 98.4% | Josh Shapiro | Favorite won | 0.000 |
| Forecast bin | Races | Mean forecast | Favorite win rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50-60% | 1 | 53% | 100% |
| 60-70% | 5 | 64% | 60% |
| 70-80% | 7 | 74% | 100% |
| 80-90% | 4 | 85% | 100% |
| 90-100% | 13 | 95% | 100% |
Scoring: Brier = (probability − outcome)², where outcome is 1 if the pre-election favorite won and 0 if not. Control rows use the Democratic market as the forecast. Results come from the market result field on settled Kalshi markets, so rows update as Kalshi settles them.