Person
Nathan Benaich
Founder, Air Street Capital; lead author, State of AI Report
- Score
- —
- 95% interval
- —
- Resolved
- 0
- Record (C–P–W)
- 0–0–0
- Open
- 3
- Too vague
- 0
Not ranked yet: leaderboards need at least 5 resolved claims (has 0). Score = specificity-weighted average of claim points; we grade claims, not people.
Calibration
No resolved claims with a stated probability yet, so there is nothing to calibrate. Calibration needs forecasts like “70% chance of X”.
Track record
Open (3)
An AI-led cyberattack steals complete weights of a closed frontier model (within ~12 months)
“An AI-led cyberattack steals the complete weights of a closed frontier model from a leading AI lab.”
An autonomous AI team beats human-led model research on equal time and compute, setting its agenda (within ~12 months)
“An autonomous AI team beats human-led model research on equal time and compute, setting its agenda.”
AGI in 2027 (State of AI Report ninth prediction)
“AI progress is moving so quickly that we expect AGI in 2027, the tenth anniversary of the State of AI Report. Our ninth prediction, “AGI 2027,” reflects that conviction about the p…”
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