Person

Mira Murati

Founder of Thinking Machines Lab; former CTO of OpenAI

Score: 100%
95% interval: 21%–100%
Resolved: 1
Record (C–P–W): 1–0–0
Open: 0
Too vague: 0

Not ranked yet: leaderboards need at least 5 resolved claims (has 1). Score = specificity-weighted average of claim points; we grade claims, not people.

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No resolved claims with a stated probability yet, so there is nothing to calibrate. Calibration needs forecasts like “70% chance of X”.

Track record

Resolved (1)

CorrectPrediction

PhD-level AI for specific tasks in "a year and a half"

“And then in the next couple of years, we're looking at PhD-level intelligence for specific tasks.”

said Jun 2024 · resolved Aug 7, 2025

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SiPoly, “Mira Murati: AI predictions and promises track record.” https://sipoly.si/who/mira-murati/ (accessed October 11, 2026).

APA style

SiPoly. (n.d.). Mira Murati: AI predictions and promises track record [Forecaster profile]. sipoly.si. Retrieved October 11, 2026, from https://sipoly.si/who/mira-murati/

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