- Score
- 58%
- 95% interval
- 12%–93%
- Resolved
- 2
- Record (C–P–W)
- 1–0–1
- Open
- 0
- Too vague
- 0
- Mean Brier
- 0.424 (2)
Not ranked yet: leaderboards need at least 5 resolved claims (has 2). Score = specificity-weighted average of claim points; we grade claims, not people.
Calibration
| Stated probability | Forecasts | Mean stated | Happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–20% | 2 | 6% | 50% |
| 20–40% | 0 | — | — |
| 40–60% | 0 | — | — |
| 60–80% | 0 | — | — |
| 80–100% | 0 | — | — |
Track record
Resolved (2)
CorrectPrediction
4% that AI solves the hardest IMO problem by 2025
“I'd put 4% on "For the 2022, 2023, 2024, or 2025 IMO an AI built before the IMO is able to solve the single hardest problem"”
WrongPrediction
8% that AI gets IMO gold by 2025
“Maybe I'll go 8% on "gets gold" instead of "solves hardest problem."”
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