OpenPrediction
The stock market will be up 30% in 2026, led by AI companies
“The stock market has gone up 30% in 2026, led by OpenBrain, Nvidia, and whichever companies have most successfully integrated AI assistants.”
Context: AI 2027 scenario (Apr 3, 2025), which the authors called their "best guess" and later clarified had 2027 as the modal year, with somewhat longer medians. Section "Late 2026: AI Takes Some Jobs".
How we judge it
Our interpretation: correct if the S&P 500 total return for calendar 2026 is at least +25%, with AI-linked companies leading.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 84 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 3 of 3 (precise and measurable)
