At least 50%: AI builds a payment site from scratch, writes a hit-indistinguishable song and fine-tunes an LLM by itself by 2028
“The aggregate forecasts give at least a 50% chance of AI systems achieving several milestones by 2028, including autonomously constructing a payment processing site from scratch, creating a song indistinguishable from a new song by a popular musician, and autonomously downloading and fine-tuning a large language model.”
Context: Survey of 2,778 researchers who published at top AI venues, fielded Oct 2023 (Grace et al., "Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI", arXiv 2401.02843, Jan 2024). Aggregate forecasts, "if science continues undisrupted".
How we judge it
Our interpretation: YES if by end-2028 all three milestones are credibly demonstrated: an AI autonomously builds a working payment-processing site from scratch, generates a song judged indistinguishable from a new release by a popular artist, and autonomously downloads and fine-tunes an LLM.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 815 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- 50%
- Specificity
- 3 of 3 (precise and measurable)
