OpenPrediction
10% chance machines outperform humans at every task by 2027
“If science continues undisrupted, the chance of unaided machines outperforming humans in every possible task was estimated at 10% by 2027, and 50% by 2047.”
Context: Survey of 2,778 researchers who published at top AI venues, fielded Oct 2023 (Grace et al., "Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI", arXiv 2401.02843, Jan 2024). Aggregate forecasts, "if science continues undisrupted".
How we judge it
Our interpretation: YES if by end-2027 unaided AI systems can do every task better and more cheaply than human workers (the survey's HLMI definition).
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 448 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- 10%
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
