OpenPrediction
~25%: 80%-reliability one-month task horizons by the start of 2028
“We're pretty unlikely (25%?) to see 80% reliability at 1 month tasks by the start of 2028.”
Context: LessWrong post "My AGI timeline updates from GPT-5 (and 2025 so far)" (Aug 2025).
How we judge it
Our interpretation: YES if by 1 Jan 2028 METR (or an equivalent evaluation) reports an 80%-reliability time horizon of at least one work-month (~167 hours).
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 450 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- 25%
- Specificity
- 3 of 3 (precise and measurable)
