OpenPrediction
"10% to 20%" chance AI leads to human extinction within three decades
“said there was a “10% to 20%” chance that AI would lead to human extinction within the next three decades.”
Context: BBC Radio 4 Today programme, as reported by the Guardian (Dec 27, 2024).
How we judge it
Our interpretation: a probability statement over 30 years; it cannot be scored on a single outcome before 2054. Kept for the record.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 10307 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 1 of 3 (vague or hedged)
