OpenPrediction
Claims of AGI by 2030 are "laughable"
“I do not believe human-level AI (artificial superintelligence, or the commonest sense of #AGI) is close at hand. AI has made breakthroughs, but the claim of AGI by 2030 is as laughable as claims of AGI by 1980 are in retrospect.”
Context: Post on X by the Stanford NLP professor.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: correct if by 31 Dec 2030 no AI system is broadly accepted as human-level AGI.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 1545 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
