OpenPrediction
Strong AGI expected "in the next 5-10 years" (from Nov 2025)
“The companies seem to think strong AGI is just a few years away, and while I'm not as bullish as they are, I do expect it to happen in the next 5-10 years.”
Context: Reply on X.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: by 12 Nov 2035, an AI system broadly accepted as strong AGI (able to do essentially all cognitive work humans do) exists.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 3322 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
