OpenPrediction
"A 50% chance of AGI in the next 3 years" (from Jan 2025)
“Of course this now means a 50% chance of AGI in the next 3 years!”
Context: Post on X replying to a reminder of his long-standing forecast (median AGI around 2028); "Still seems about right to me."
How we judge it
Our interpretation: by 10 Jan 2028, a system exists that Google DeepMind or broad expert consensus accepts as AGI (able to do the cognitive tasks people typically can).
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 458 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- 50%
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
