Organization
AI Futures Project
Forecasting nonprofit behind the "AI 2027" scenario (Kokotajlo, Lifland, Larsen, Dean, Alexander)
- Score
- —
- 95% interval
- —
- Resolved
- 0
- Record (C–P–W)
- 0–0–0
- Open
- 2
- Too vague
- 0
Not ranked yet: leaderboards need at least 5 resolved claims (has 0). Score = specificity-weighted average of claim points; we grade claims, not people.
Calibration
No resolved claims with a stated probability yet, so there is nothing to calibrate. Calibration needs forecasts like “70% chance of X”.
Track record
Open (2)
OpenPrediction
A 10,000-person anti-AI protest in Washington, DC by late 2026
“Many people fear that the next wave of AIs will come for their jobs; there is a 10,000 person anti-AI protest in DC.”
OpenPrediction
The stock market will be up 30% in 2026, led by AI companies
“The stock market has gone up 30% in 2026, led by OpenBrain, Nvidia, and whichever companies have most successfully integrated AI assistants.”
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