- Score
- —
- 95% interval
- —
- Resolved
- 0
- Record (C–P–W)
- 0–0–0
- Open
- 2
- Too vague
- 0
Not ranked yet: leaderboards need at least 5 resolved claims (has 0). Score = specificity-weighted average of claim points; we grade claims, not people.
Calibration
No resolved claims with a stated probability yet, so there is nothing to calibrate. Calibration needs forecasts like “70% chance of X”.
Track record
Open (2)
OpenPrediction
AI "10,000 times smarter than humans" within 10 years
“Artificial intelligence that is 10,000 times smarter than humans will be here in 10 years, SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son said on Friday in a rare public appearance.”
OpenPrediction
AGI "one to 10 times smarter than humans" in the next three to five years
“Son said this tech is likely to be one to 10 times smarter than humans and will arrive in the next three-to-five years, earlier than he had anticipated.”
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