- Score
- 64%
- 95% interval
- 9%–97%
- Resolved
- 1
- Record (C–P–W)
- 0–0–1
- Open
- 0
- Too vague
- 0
- Mean Brier
- 0.360 (1)
Not ranked yet: leaderboards need at least 5 resolved claims (has 1). Score = specificity-weighted average of claim points; we grade claims, not people.
Calibration
| Stated probability | Forecasts | Mean stated | Happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–20% | 0 | — | — |
| 20–40% | 0 | — | — |
| 40–60% | 0 | — | — |
| 60–80% | 1 | 60% | 0% |
| 80–100% | 0 | — | — |
Track record
Resolved (1)
WrongPrediction
60%: an OpenAI o-series model solves a Millennium Prize problem in 2025
“i think it’s likely (p=.6) that an o-series model solves a millennium prize math problem in 2025”
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